Spine H2-IRL
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2),
- Electricity,
- Gas,
- Hydrogen
- Ireland
Context
The Spine H2-IRL builds on previous work using an open approach to address unresolved questions related to flexibility and complex interdependencies between technologies in energy systems. Existing models have been refined, expanded, and new models developed, including a reliability assessment model. The goal of Spine H2-IRL is to develop and publish open models for a comprehensive assessment of a future Irish energy system with widespread hydrogen production and consumption, alongside other net-zero solutions. This is complemented by analyses using these models to demonstrate their utility and provide valuable insights into the future development of Ireland’s energy system. The detailed models enable investment optimisation across sectors while considering network constraints, long- and short-term storage optimisation, and operational details. Additional models offer more comprehensive flexibility and reliability assessments.
This is an external use case of Mopo tools implementation.
Scope
It covers the entire Irish energy system, assessing electricity and hydrogen production, consumption, and distribution at a national scale.
Scenarios
Seven future energy system scenarios are implemented and evaluated with SpineOpt, providing insights into barriers and opportunities for large-scale hydrogen deployment. The scenarios focus on a net-zero electricity system with high levels of electrification, marking a significant step towards a net-zero energy system.
The Business as Usual (BAU) scenario has no emissions target, while the other scenarios aim for net-zero electricity. Core hydrogen scenarios – Hydrogen Network and Full Network – explore varying levels of electricity and hydrogen network expansion to assess their role in deploying hydrogen technologies and renewables. The Technology Breakthrough optimistic hydrogen scenario assumes lower costs and higher efficiencies to accelerate hydrogen adoption. The Alternative Net Zero scenario excludes large-scale hydrogen, focusing on long-duration storage and gas with CCS*. The All Options scenario allows both hydrogen and CCS investments.
Carbon price €147 and natural gas €5.7 are common assumptions across all scenarios.
| Scenario | Fossil Fuel Generation | Electricity Network Expansion | Hydrogen Network Expansion | Hydrogen Demand | Hydrogen Storage | Hydrogen Investment Costs | Net Zero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business as Usual | Yes | No | No | Low | Small/Medium | High (€€€) | No |
| Electricity Network | No | Yes | No | Low | Small/Medium | High (€€€) | Yes |
| Hydrogen Network | No | No | Yes | High | Small/Medium/Large | High (€€€) | Yes |
| Full Network | No | Yes | Yes | High | Small/Medium/Large | High (€€€) | Yes |
| Technology Breakthrough | No | Yes | Yes | High | Small/Medium/Large | Medium (€€) | Yes |
| Alternative Net Zero | Yes | Yes | No | Low | Small/Medium | High (€€€) | Yes |
| All Options | Yes | No | Yes | High | Small/Medium/Large | High (€€€) | Yes |
* Carbon Capture and Storage
Results/conclusions
The seven scenarios explore different pathways to a net-zero electricity system in Ireland. They include variations in hydrogen deployment, network expansion, and the use of alternative technologies such as long-duration energy storage and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Scenarios with hydrogen assume its use in industry and transport, displacing diesel and natural gas, while other scenarios focus on storage and CCS as decarbonization strategies.
Results show differences in total system costs and emissions depending on technology choices, levels of hydrogen demand, and investment strategies. Overall, scenarios highlight the importance of flexibility, network infrastructure, and technology mix in achieving a sustainable, net-zero electricity system.